TheeconomicconsequencesforChinaofanewKoreanWar(4)
2024-06-15 来源:旧番剧
A coordinated sanctions campaign that includes freezing Chinese assets abroad, halting trade, cutting communication links and rounding up operatives of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is a foregone conclusion if the PRC intervened like in 1950. Therefore, what economic impacts should we be prepared for?
A trade embargo by US allies against China would almost immediately choke off about half of all Chinese exports and impair much more. Allies might also ban vessels flagged, owned or chartered by China, including those carrying Chinese goods, from access to ports and facilities worldwide. Allied protection for Chinese shipping could be suspended and contraband seized. Connections to unrestricted allied communications links including the Internet would be disabled.
Curtailing Chinese trade would lead immediately to mass layoffs across the export-dependent provinces of China, particularly in the southern coastal regions. Chinese economic growth, expected to moderate to 6.5% for 2018, would plunge. Recession is to be expected.