TheeconomicconsequencesforChinaofanewKoreanWar(5)
2024-06-15 来源:旧番剧
Freezing Chinese assets abroad and locking China out of the international finance system would bring trade and financial flows denominated in dollars, euros, yen and pounds to a halt. Chinese imports would have to be paid for with a mutually acceptable medium such as gold. Few vendors would accept yuan, for it is not a credible or stable storehouse of value in wartime.
Social, political unrest
Beijing would retaliate by seizing foreign assets in China, interning foreigners, and re-establishing essential trade via alternative routes that were not subject to embargo. By far the biggest problem for the CPC would be social and political unrest among hundreds of millions of workers thrown out of a job and returned to their “home” villages.
Regional rivalries and disparities in impact would put intense pressure on Beijing, resulting in local authorities challenging or disregarding the Xi regime. Peasants’ rebellions and local uprisings are the norm in Chinese history under such circumstances. The “strongest leader since Mao” might become the weakest since Chiang Kai-shek within months as warlords sense his impotence.