子谦译文｜创业教什么：六种主流创业理论的对比研究(21)

效果理论强调控制未来而不是预测未来。在最高层次的逻辑上，实现“人类创造了未来，因此，未来可以通过人类的共识行为被控制和/或创造”这一认识。效果逻辑理论声称解决了这样的控制逻辑，即提倡创业者的任务不应局限于发掘耐心等待被发现的潜在机会，它还包括通过社会过程实际创造机会。因此创业者从他们可以使用的现有手段创造的可能结果开始，并专注于与坚定的利益相关者网络的持续互动上。在模型的中间层次，五种启发式方法形成了有效决策逻辑的主干。萨拉斯瓦斯提出了如下的启发法：(1)通过提问自己你是谁、你知道什么、你认识谁来开始这个过程；(2)通过计算自己可以承受多大的损失来限制风险；(3)拥抱惊喜因素并试图利用它作为杠杆；(4)获得早期合作伙伴的承诺来减少不确定性；(5)专注于自身范围内能控制的活动，而不是试图预测未知的未来。
这五种启发式形成了一个循环，指导效果逻辑理论各个步骤的进展。在最低层次的策略中，效果逻辑理论提供了许多工具，如资产清单、可承受的损失评估模板和有效性要求来发现可用的资源。这些可以帮助评估创业活动所涉及的风险，还可以指导利益相关者形成网络，并告知他们如何控制特定努力的结果等。
Discovery-driven planning is an approach that combines business planning with learning through a series of steps that reveal key discoveries (McGrath and MacMillan 2000). On the higher level of logic, discovery-driven planning posits that uncertainty can be reduced by “systematically converting assumptions to knowledge and by redirecting its activities in the face of emerging understanding”(McGrath and MacMillan 2000, p. 243). Proponents of discovery-driven planning maintain that, while conventional planning approaches are helpful in certain situations, they may be useless or even lead to disastrous outcomes in conditions of high uncertainty. Dysfunctional outcomes are largely due to reliance on untested assumptions. To manage the uncertainty, on the middle level of model, discovery-driven planning provides six areas of guidelines: (1) framing the desired business idea; (2) benchmarking the parameters that promise a successful outcome; (3) strategic translation of operations by specifying relevant organizational deliverables; (4) documenting, testing, and evisiting previously held or newly formed assumptions; (5) managing key milestones to reflect on actions taken and planning subsequent milestones; and (6) finding creative ways to run operations with a minimum amount of resources until major assumptions are tested(McGrath and MacMillan 2000). On the lower level of tactics, tools and techniques such as reverse income statement, targeted experiments, and assumptions checklists are offered.